Vulnerability to Drought, Cyclones and Floods in India

The growing interest in adaptation policies in the context of climate change, especially among developing countries, is making vulnerability assessment a very active area of research. Understanding present day vulnerabilities and adaptation potential among local communities is increasingly being considered as a pre-requisite to such assessments. This paper focuses on understanding and quantifying the vulnerability of India to three prominent climate extremes that India is affected by repeatedly: drought, floods and cyclones. The paper analyzes vulnerability “hot spots” in three states where these hazards are prevalent: Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Orissa. Following the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change definition of vulnerability, several studies have identified useful indicators of vulnerability, but clarity is still missing on structured development of indicator sets and appropriate aggregation mechanisms. This paper addresses precisely these two aspects. Two aggregation procedures are illustrated – on based on simple averaging of normalized indicators and another based on fuzzy inference system. Similarly two separate sets of indicators – one based on structured characterization of vulnerability with focus on specific stress and specific output sector, and another based on general vulnerability characterization – are developed and used for vulnerability assessment. The empirical analysis is carried out using state level data and vulnerability assessment is presented for the three chosen states but could be undertaken at different levels and for other countries to provide a more detailed and more useful assessment of vulnerability.